Has the Prime Minister’s Usefulness Expired? Hamza Abdi Barre’s Potential Vote of No Confidence Loom

Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has been a loyal ally and obedient servant to Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Unwavering loyalty has marked his tenure, but as Henry Kissinger famously said, “There are no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” In the context of Somali politics, this sentiment rings especially true, given the clan-based power-sharing arrangements that dominate the landscape.

The pressing question now arises: Has Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s usefulness come to an end? The Prime Minister may find himself at a crossroads, balancing his past loyalty against emerging interests as the political landscape shifts and new alliances form. In a system where pragmatism often supersedes fidelity, Barre must navigate these treacherous waters carefully to maintain his position and influence in a constantly evolving scenario.

Despite holding significant power under Somalia’s 4.5 clan power-sharing structure, Hamza has consistently aligned himself with the interests of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, often at the expense of his autonomy. This system stipulates that if a Hawiye like Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is president, a Darod must serve as prime minister, creating a delicate balance of clan interests. However, Hamza’s role seems to have transcended these expectations, positioning him as a tool for Hassan Sheikh’s broader political ambitions.

This dynamic raises questions about the sustainability of such power-sharing arrangements in a landscape often dominated by clan loyalties. These complexities will require Hamza to balance his loyalty to the president with his clan’s expectations to maintain government stability.

The relationship between Hamza and Hassan is long-standing; they previously collaborated in a private school in Mogadishu, which made Hamza a convenient choice for prime minister. This history has allowed Hassan to tighten his control over the government. Hamza has exceeded the typical responsibilities of his role, enabling Hassan to circumvent essential oversight mechanisms. A notable example was his refusal to address the Harti clan’s plea for assistance during the 2023 Harti-Isaaq conflict in Laascaanood. Under pressure from Hassan, Hamza ignored their requests, sacrificing his own clan’s grievances in the process.

Further demonstrating his allegiance, Hamza has supported Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attempts to make unconstitutional changes, including proposals to abolish the prime minister’s office and transform it into a vice presidential role. Such a shift would significantly alter Somalia’s governance structure, potentially dismantling the traditional clan-based power-sharing system.

However, a growing push to remove Hamza Abdi Barre from the office raises questions about his continued usefulness to Hassan. The shifting alliances within Somalia’s complex political landscape are the root cause of this change in sentiment. Initially, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud relied on Hamza and Ahmed Mohamed Islam, the President of Jubaland State and a fellow Darod from the Ogaden sub-clan, to isolate the Puntland Federal Member State. For over two years, this coalition served Hassan’s interests effectively.

Recently, however, this alliance has frayed. Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam publicly withdrew his support for Hassan Sheikh’s controversial constitutional changes, citing the exclusion of Puntland, Somalia’s only fully functioning Federal Member State—from negotiations. His statement, “Without Puntland and Khatumo at the table, Jubaland will not assist Hassan with his unconstitutional policies,” marks a decisive break that leaves Hamza vulnerable and questions his continued relevance to Hassan’s agenda.

As Hassan scrambles to find a new prime minister who can carry out his agenda, Hamza Abdi Barre now faces a potential vote of no confidence. This situation exemplifies the complex dynamics of Somali politics, where even the most devoted servant may face dismissal after fulfilling their role.
The coming weeks will reveal whether Hamza’s time as prime minister has truly come to an end. The implications of this unfolding drama are significant, not only for Hamza but also for the stability of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration.

Cirka News will continue to monitor this developing situation. Many question the future direction of the government and the potential for renewed conflict as the political landscape shifts. Observers are particularly concerned about how this turmoil may affect ongoing efforts to address security challenges and humanitarian needs in the region.

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Cirka News, insights and in-depth analysis from Africa’s leading newsroom.