Horn of Africa and the new Trump administration

By:-Dahir Mire Jibril.

In a new term under president Donald Trump, the Horn of Africa could once again become a focal point for increased involvement by U.S.-aligned regional powers like Egypt, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Israel. Trump’s close ties with the leaders of these countries suggest he may offer them considerable freedom to pursue their own agendas within the region, viewing their influence as beneficial to U.S. strategic goals. This approach could create an environment in which these countries operate with minimal U.S. influence, deepening their respective political, economic, and security roles in Somalia and neighboring states.

Under such a framework, Somalia would likely continue to see expanded roles from regional powers with competing agendas. Turkey, with its substantial investments in Somalia’s oil exploration, infrastructure and security, would likely bolster its influence, especially in Mogadishu, aligning itself closely with the Somali federal government. Conversely, the UAE might continue supporting semi-autonomous regions like Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland, further straining its relations with Somalia’s central government. This dynamic could lead to heightened competition between Turkey and the UAE, with each power vying for a greater foothold in Somali affairs and resources.

A new Trump administration may also adopt a more direct stance on the ongoing Nile dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia, potentially aligning with Egypt’s position. Egypt sees the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a threat to its vital water resources, and a Trump-led U.S. could provide Egypt with political support, exerting pressure on Ethiopia to yield to Egyptian demands. Such alignment would not only strengthen Egypt’s leverage but could also destabilize Ethiopia’s internal politics, as factions opposing prime Minister Abiye Ahmed gain external support.

Trump’s stance may extend to endorsing leadership changes in Ethiopia that align more closely with Egypt’s security concerns, shifting the balance of power in the Horn.

Further, Trump might encourage or support a reinvigorated tripartite alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. Such an alliance would likely aim to check Ethiopia’s regional dominance and counter its influence over the Nile waters.

By backing this coalition, a Trump administration would signal support for reshaping regional alliances to create a counterweight against Ethiopia and its allies, such as BRICS.

This could intensify Ethiopia’s regional isolation, especially if its neighbors, supported by Trump’s allies, push for greater influence over the Horn’s geopolitical dynamics.

In summary, the new Trump administration could foster a strategic environment where regional powers in the Horn of Africa, under U.S. tacit approval, operate freely to assert their competing interests. This hands-off approach would likely amplify existing rivalries, as countries like Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE maneuver to solidify their spheres of influence.

Rather than discouraging these power struggles, Trump might view them as a means to indirectly achieve U.S. objectives, shaping the Horn of Africa’s political and security landscape to align more closely with his administration’s vision for regional stability and American influence.