Navigating the Transition of the Global Order: A Strategic Imperative for Somalia April 4, 2025

Navigating the Transition of the Global Order: A Strategic Imperative for Somalia
April 4, 2025
“An open letter to all those who care deeply about our beloved country, Somalia.”.

April 04, 2025

By Dr. Liban Cigaal

Empires rarely collapse overnight. History consistently demonstrates that they unravel gradually due to internal divisions, weakened institutions, declining public trust, and shifting international allegiances. The Western Roman Empire serves as a classic example: by 468 AD, Emperor Anthemius found himself isolated, his authority diminished, with regional elites aligning themselves with emerging powers such as the Visigoths and Vandals. Islamic history offers further instructive examples. Both the Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates once global centres of knowledge, governance, and civilisation eventually succumbed to internal fragmentation, political complacency, and an inability to adapt to changing realities. Their decline serves as a timeless reminder that even the most illustrious of empires are vulnerable when they lose cohesion and foresight.

From Fukuyama’s Optimism to Contemporary Uncertainty
In the early 1990s, influential political theorist Francis Fukuyama argued in his seminal work, “The End of History and the Last Man,” that liberal democracy had achieved a definitive triumph, marking the culmination of ideological evolution. Interestingly, Fukuyama’s optimism coincided precisely with Somalia’s collapse into civil war in 1991. In later works such as “Political Order and Political Decay” and “Liberalism and Its Discontents,” he acknowledges liberal democracy’s fragility. Rising populism, institutional decay, and growing public distrust have exposed deep vulnerabilities in the Western-led liberal order.

The American-Led Liberal Order and Its Emerging Cracks
After World War II, the United States emerged not only victorious but as the chief architect of a global liberal order. Institutions such as the United Nations, IMF, and World Bank were established to promote global cooperation but also served American strategic interests. NATO was formed to contain the Soviet Union and assure European security. However, by 2025, the structure of this order has weakened considerably. The Trump administration’s foreign policy reflects a deep pivot inward abandoning traditional multilateralism and placing emphasis on national interest above international responsibility.

Economic Nationalism and the Retreat from Globalization
President Trump‘s dramatic 2nd April 2, 2025 announcement of tariffs between 10% and 49% on imports from approximately 180 nations marked a definitive break from decades of American-led globalisation. According to economist Richard Wolff, this shift reflects the declining reach of the American empire. Rather than revitalising domestic industry, such policies reinforce isolationism and trigger economic fragmentation raising serious questions about the future of global trade and American influence.

Ukraine Crisis: Europe’s Isolation and America’s Strategic Retreat
The Ukraine conflict underscores the broader shift in American foreign policy. Since World War II, NATO and U.S. military commitments have formed the bedrock of European security. Yet, in recent years, the United States has scaled back its role leaving European allies exposed in the face of Russian aggression. The lack of coordinated transatlantic response has forced Europe to re-evaluate its defence and diplomatic autonomy, signaling a fracturing of post-war alliances that once defined global stability.

Cold War Lessons and Somalia’s Strategic Imperative Today
It is not the federal model itself that has hindered Somalia’s progress, but rather poor leadership, politicised clan dynamics, and an on-going lack of competence in governance. Despite notable institutional reforms, Somalia remains fragile and disjointed. Its geopolitical value strategic location, coastline, and untapped resources remains underutilised. These challenges are exacerbated by internal distrust, poor coordination, and an absence of unified vision. Without a fundamental shift in leadership quality that is, the competence, vision, and ethical commitment of those entrusted with guiding the nation Somalia risks once again becoming a passive observer in a world that rewards strategic clarity and penalises internal division.

A Call for Strategic Vision
We are witnessing a historic reconfiguration of global power. Somalia cannot afford to remain stagnant or disconnected. Instead, we must embrace a strategic awakening one that leverages national assets, harmonises leadership, and forges a collective national identity rooted in pragmatism and long-term vision.

An Essential Advisory for Somali Politicians and Leaders
To Somali politicians and current leaders: Open channels of inclusive participation for intellectuals, strategists, and citizens with meaningful ideas. Governance must transcend personal loyalties and historical grievances. Strategy must be shaped by open dialogue, national unity, and flexible yet principled planning. As the Qur’an cites Pharaoh’s misguided leadership in Surah Ghafir (40:29):

قَالَ فِرْعَوْنُ مَا أُرِيكُمْ إِلَّا مَا أَرَىٰ وَمَا أَهْدِيكُمْ إِلَّا سَبِيلَ الرَّشَادِ

“I only show you what I see, and I guide you only to the path of righteousness.”
This verse stands as a timeless warning about the dangers of authoritarian governance and the hubris of leaders who reject counsel and silence dissent.

Somalia’s Internal Fragmentation and the Urgency of National Cohesion.

Internally, Somalia’s political system remains paralysed by mistrust between the federal government and member states. Contentions over constitutional authority, power-sharing, and access to national resources continue to prevent unified state-building. These divisions, compounded by recurring political standoffs and weak institutions, threaten national integrity at a time when cohesive governance is desperately needed.
While the world evolves shaped by AI, resource-driven competition, and strategic realignment Somalia risks being left behind. National leaders must step beyond factional politics and establish unified, strategic consensus. This requires courage, clarity, and commitment to national priorities above individual ambition.

Conclusion: A Personal Appeal for National Responsibility
Knowing full well the internal discord that continues to cripple our federal structure, fully aware of the depth of the crisis afflicting our institutions, and conscious of the dangers looming both within and beyond our borders I find myself unable to stay silent.

Our country stands at a crossroads, not only weakened by external challenges, but further paralysed by internal inertia, leadership fatigue, and what appears, at times, to be a deliberate detachment from national duty. In a moment where clarity, responsibility, and vision are most needed, we are met instead with indifference, personal rivalries, and a dangerous normalisation of dysfunction.

My conscience would not allow me to remain idle while the stakes are so high. This letter, this reflection, is written in the hope that there are still those among us leaders, thinkers, patriots who are willing to rise above narrow interests, to speak truth, and to act with courage and foresight.

Let this be, for me, a discharge of the trust I hold as a Somali citizen. And may it serve as a wake-up call to those in whose hands the destiny of our nation rests.

اللهم إني قد بلغت، اللهم فاشهد

✍ By Dr. Liban Egaal
BMS | MBBS | MPH | Global Health Diplomacy
Political Analyst & Public Health Advocate

raydab04@gmail.com