Soomaaliya Deyn Ma Laga Cafiyey?

Waxaan dhegaystay Clip kooban oo Wasiir Beyle (Finance Ministry of SFG) duubay isagoo ku dooday dhowr arimood oo aan ku habboonayn maqaamka wasiir maaliyadeed.

Wasiirku, isaga isleh difaac go’aamadda aan loo meel deyin ee xukummaddiisu qaadanayso iyaga oo eegaya maslaxadooda siyaasadeed ee dhow keliya isla markaasna halis gelinaya mustaqbal facaha (next generations) soo socda, wuxuu ku andacooday dhow arimood oo ah jahwareerin (disinformation) ummadeed:

1. Wuxuu ku tuhmay shacabka Soomaaliyeed iyo aqoon yahankooda in aysan fahmi karin qaabka iyo foormulooyinka (formula) loo maray “deyn cafinta” (haddii ay run tahay!).

Wuxuu sheegay Wasiirku in ay isticmaaleen “Bridge Financing” isagoo u sawiraya in uu yahay wax aan dadku fahmi karin!!

1. Wuxuu sheegay Wasiirku in waddamada Soomaaliya deynta ku leh aan sharciyadoodu u ogolayn in ay deynta cafiyaan! Yaab!
2. Wuxuu sheegay in World Bank horay uga cafiyey, bishaan 25-keedana (25th March 2020) ay IMF ka cafin doonto isagoo ku kajamaya shacabkana wuxuu yiri “ishii buktooy ku bikaacso!” Hab-dhaqan Wasiir oo yaab leh!

Haddaba su’aashu waxay tahay Somaliya deyn ma laga cafiyey? Waase maxay “Bridge Financing”?

Jawaabta kooban waxay tahay annagoo cuskanayna isla hadalka Wasiirka waa “MAYA”. Deyn lama cafin ee waa culeyskii hore oo mid laguu daray “reeryo reeryo kale la dulsaaray!

Caddayn:

Wasiirku wuxuu yiri waxaan isticmaalnay “Bridge Financing”.

Waa maxay “Bridge Financing”?
Haddii af-Soomaali lagu soo koobo waa “Deyn deyn kale ku gud” oo weliba uu sii dheer tahay dulsaar Ribo dheeri ah oo aad u badan sida 20% interest.

Qaab kee u shaqeeyaa “Bridge Financing”?

Marka shirkad (Dawlad) ay u baahan tahay maal gelin deg deg ah (short term financial obligation for working capital), isla markaasna ay filayso in ay hesho lacag maalgelin ah oo muddadeedu dheer tahay (secure long term investment/loan), laakiin aan hadda la heli karin laakiin la hubo (approved) in la heli doono muddo dhow ka dib (e.g. 1 sano, 6 bilood ka dib), waxay qaadataa deyn ay kusii buuxiso mudda ay lacagta sugeyso (bridging the gap). Deynta noocaan ah waxaa la yiraahdaa “Bridge Loan”, waxaana lagu qaataa Ribo dulsaarkeedu aad ku badan yahay sida 20% interest – maxaa yeelay mudda ayaa yar. Maalgelinta noocaan ahna waxaa la yiraahdaa “Bridge Financing”.

“Bridge Financing” waa ilaa 3 nooc “Bridge Loan” oo aynu kor ku sharaxnay. Nooca labaad waa “Bridge Equity Financing” oo ah in jihadda lacagta bixisay la siiyo saamiyo iyagu ay awood u leeyihiin in jaangooyaan qiimaha saamiga. Waxaa ka faa’iidaysta “Venture Capital Firms” marka ay u arkaan in qolada deynta rabta Business koodu faa’iidayo. Nooca saddexaad waa “Bridge IPO financing” oo ku dhow kan dambe. IPO (Initial Price Offering) oo ah marka shirkad ay furayso saamiyo hor leh.

Gebogebo:

Waxaa muuqata in Wasaaradda Maaliyadda iyo Xukuumadda hadda haysa SFG aysan si buuxda ugu beer xaarnayn shacabka. In loolanka siyaasadeed ay ku jirto xukuymaddu ku marin habaabinayso Shacabka wax ugu yeertay “Deyn Cafin!” maqaarsaar ah, laakiin deyn hor lagu gelinayo.

Waxaa muuqata:

1. In Soomaliya aan deyn laga cafin ee qolooyin (Dawladdo, Shirkado Caalamiya) oo aan la faafin ay ka bixinaynaan deymaha hadda taagan iyagoo ku bixinaya dulsaar Ribo ah oo aad u badan.
2. In Soomaaliya qaadanayso deyn hor leh oo ka badan tii hore si qolooyinkaan ay u siiyaan deyntooda dhow (short term loan with high interest).

Tusaale: waxaa la inaka bixiyey $100M + 20% interest (muddada bixinta 1 sano ama 6 bilood) = $120M. Waxaynu qaadanay $150M + 5% interest (mudda bixinta 20 sano. Waxaan iska bixinay $120M deynta ahayd. Waxaa xukuumadda hadda jirta u haray $30M. Doorashaa lagu galay (tusaale ahaan).

Norway waxay sheegtay in Somalia ay weydiisatay “Bridge Loan” ka badan NOK 3 Billion oo ku dhow USD 300M! Lama oga dulsaarka Ribada ay rabto!!

(https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/somalia_loan/id2673476/)

World Bank wuxuu qiray in lacag ka badan USD 365M Soomaaliya ay ku bixisay “Bridge Loan”

(https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/03/05/somalia-clears-arrears-to-world-bank-group).

Faca soo socda (next generation) waxay ay la il darnaan doonaan bixinta deynta iyo dulsaarka ribada (cummulative/compound interest) dul fuuli doonta muddaa dheer.

Rabbi talo ku filan.

Dr. Maxamuud C/Raxmaan.